Washington DC

30 April 2022

In a nuclear crisis everything hangs on clear communication. The Russian predilection to lie and spin everything undermines their credibility when they are truly trying to say something they need the other side to believe.

His back is against the wall. A tactical nuke in Kiev would terrify the world and cause the west to back right off. The only other alternative would be for the west to escalate to deescalate. There are other things we can do before they use a weapon. Read on...

US policy toward Japan in 1940 maybe a useful analogy here. Japan was a peaking power (H/t Hal Brands) which have more incentive to strike than a rising power - in order the keep their gains as they start down the slide from the point of maximum power. Denial of oil supplies by the US put Japan on a countdown to powerlessness. With each passing day they would have less power to take military action to protect their interests. Tojo reportedly said they jumped into Pearl with one eye open - meaning out of desperation that a wild gamble was necessitated by their suddenly declining circumstances.

Putin is facing abject and total failure after a career of triumphs. Over sensitive to pride - personal and national (he is unable to distinguish the two) - pumped up with toxic masculinity if you like - the little mans miscalculation is messing with his mind. This at a time when he is facing considerable table clenching illness and all exacerbated by stress of failure. His psychology profile is errile similar to Hitlers. Adolf did not cope well with defeats. Denial only got him so far. Once he knew there was no escape he ordered the destruction of everything - a final denial of the spoils - "if I can't have it, you can't either" basically a toddler tanty. He said the German ppl failed him and so deserved to die!

For once, the West has played Putin brilliantly, enabled by Ukrainan will, blood and charisma. We are playing a masterful hybrid war - maximum pressure under the threshold of open conflict. However, SecDef Austin's understandable jab about expanding our war aims is exactly the wrong message. It's taunting a nuclear bully as he falls to the floor clutching at straws. Let our actions speak. No need to gloat or provoke. It serves no purpose.

We risk failure at the moment of triumph. Because to us the nuclear option is unimaginable the West simply assumes when Putin gives the order it will not be obeyed. Or that he will be removed from power internally before or upon giving the order to use a Nuke. This is fatal cultural mirroring.

Putin is ready to take the world with him. Once he knows he has to die do you think he gives a fig about you and your prescious family?

Unconventional threats demand unconventional deterrence - the west needs to deter Putin personally. To find out how click here.